10 years ago, Ukraine exported a mere 4 MMT of wheat; this rose to 18 MMT in 2020 and once official figures are in, will probably have exceeded 20 MMT in 2021. With Russian wheat exports dropping around 12 MMT to 25 MMT in 2021, Ukrainian wheat has become an important alternative market for several countries, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, which accounts for around 40% of all Ukrainian grain exports. Egypt and Indonesia, at around 3 MMT, are the largest markets for Ukrainian wheat whilst cargo shipped to Turkey is up 50% at 1.5 MMT.

Ukraine has benefited from the increase in global wheat prices over the past year but has recently seen prices start to come off, down to $311 this week, as buyers have become concerned about potential supply issues in the light of the region’s current political tensions and the proximity of Russian troops to the main wheat growing areas in the east of the country, whilst a strong crop in Australia has seen a number of Southeast Asian countries particularly Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand as well as Bangladesh switch to purchasing wheat from a closer source. A further concern for Ukrainian farmers with potentially reduced demand for their wheat is the exceptionally high costs of fertilizers and fuel given that the currency, the hryvnia, has weakened more than 5% so far this year.