Where to put your money on a 2021 shipping bet? A panel of equity analysts at Wednesday’s Capital Link International Shipping Forum had a clear preference for the dry bulk trade, but only to a point. After that, tankers look stronger on continued inventory destocking and the return of global travel as nations reopen and recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, at least in the view of some pundits. And then there’s a wild card: if a shipowner has scrubbers on its vessels, it might be worth backing regardless of the operating sector.

The five analysts under questioning from Capital Link founder Nicolas Bornozis were generally together, though, on an overall positive view of shipping prospects for 2021 and beyond. “In deep value, I like dry bulk,” said J Mintzmyer, lead researcher for Value Investor’s Edge and also an investor in shipping stocks. “Not all the stocks are up to NAV yet. I like dry as a trade in 2021 but I don’t like it long term. Longer term, I’m more apt to pick containerships.”

Mintzmyer drew agreement from both Greg Lewis of Credit Suisse and Randy Giveans of Jefferies, at least on the short-term dry play. “I’m bullish on dry bulk,” Lewis said. “Coming out of Chinese New Year, cape rates are moving higher…it’s what I’d want to own now.” Giveans added his support for bulkers and boxships in the short term. “But give me more than six months and I like refined product tankers and even crude tankers. With travel and jet fuel demand moving higher, give me nine months and I like tankers,” he said.

Ben Nolan of Stifel piled on the bulkers bandwagon, but begged off on containerships, saying he worried about a fall from current highs. “If we go lower, we’re going to lose momentum,” he said. Omar Nokta of Clarksons completed the dry enthusiasm, but not at the exclusion of tankers, saying he sees a quicker recovery than Giveans projects. “I’m very excited, but not necessarily over six-to-nine months – it may happen sooner than that,” Nokta said. He noted that an Opec meeting on Thursday is likely to bring good news in the form or production increases. “It’s not what they decide to boost production by, it’s that every meeting is now about what they’re bringing on, not reducing,” Nokta said.

Increasing oil prices also mean wider spreads between prices of high-sulphur and low-sulphur bunkers, something seized upon by Lewis in his remarks about users of exhaust-gas scrubbers. They allow owners to continue using dirtier but lower-priced fuel. “Think about looking at companies that own scrubbers,” Lewis said. “Scrubbers are making money now, and we expect that price spread to widen. We think companies that have scrubber exposure should outperform over the next six to 18 months.”

With the stock-pickers finding more good than bad in their forecasts, Nolan confessed that it was a somewhat unsettling feeling. He noted the absence from the panel of Evercore ISI analyst Jonthan Chappell, who has often struck a bearish tone over the years. “With Jon not here, I’m probably the most curmudgeonly of the group, but I feel pretty good about things,” Nolan said. “I don’t known whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing. Maybe we need Jon to bring things down a little bit.”