Mining giant Rio Tinto said it expects iron ore shipments in 2023 to be in the same range as this year. It expects to ship between 320 and 335 MMT of the steelmaking ingredient next year, according to figures released Wednesday. The world’s largest iron-ore producer reiterated guidance for exports at the low end of the same range in 2022. The Anglo-Australian company said Pilbara shipments guidance remains “subject to risks around commissioning and ramp-up of new mines and management of cultural heritage”.

Rio’s head of economics and markets, Vivek Tulpule, told a London investor seminar that the company expects broadly flat future growth for primary steel demand “as India and Asia take over from China in terms of absolute growth”.

Iron ore prices have jumped 25% in November amid signs that China is preparing to loosen some of the restrictive measures of its zero-Covid policies. “Iron ore was dragged higher as sentiment was buoyed by the apparent shift in China’s zero-Covid strategy,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank. “However, weakness in the property sector persists. New home sales by the 100 biggest producer developers dropped by 26% year-on-year…in November.”

Breakwave Advisors founder John Kartsonas told TradeWinds earlier this week that the current zero-Covid policy has greatly affected economic activity in China, which includes real estate development, infrastructure spending and general construction activity, leading to a slowdown in commodity imports into the country. “A potential relaxation of such strict Covid measures could lead to a revival of economic activity, leading to increased commodity demand and thus imports into the country,” he said. “Such a development will positively affect shipping, as demand for ships to transport such commodities will increase.”

China’s imports of iron ore from Australia are up 3.5% in the first 10 months of 2022 to 609.6 MMT, according to Italian shipbroker Banchero Costa. Australia accounted for over 82% of China’s imports. While this is an increase on the 589.2 MMT imported in 2021, it is still below the all-time record 614.8 MMT shipped by Australia to China between January and October 2020.