China’s ambitious five-year plan to slash reliance on iron ore from Australia, published last year, has increased Chinese investments and construction pace on African mines. China targets Guinea and the Simandou project, the largest untapped deposit on the planet, to become their iron ore hub with targeted production from 2025. With a capacity of 175 MMTpa, the area can potentially substitute c24% of China’s imports from Australia. Adding the Nimba project in Guinea, estimated to go online by 2026 or 2027, the country is set to become the world’s third largest exporter of iron ore. Other Chinese-led projects are under construction in Cameroon, while the New Tonkolili Project has commenced full-scale production in Sierra Leone.

While all projects in WAF earlier have seen countless postponements, it now seems more likely that they will materialize during this decade. In total, the region can potentially substitute 38% of China’s imports from Australia, consequently adding favorable tonne-miles to dry bulk shipping demand. West African volumes match Brazilian volumes at around 11.1k nautical miles into China, which compares to 3.6k nautical miles for Australian volumes.

Hence, any shift from Australia to West Africa would more than treble the sailing distance and drive demand for dry bulk vessels.