The unfortunate events in eastern Europe are destined to affect shipping demand. For dry bulk, we believe the events should translate into an increased risk of volumes declining, most notably grains, where more than 15% of global shipped volumes are sourced from the Black Sea. However, a shift in sourcing to further afield could offset the volume loss and be positive from a tonne-mile demand perspective. Moreover, the continued strain on energy markets bodes well for coal’s prospects in the coming years. Still, the elevated uncertainty and inflationary pressure are likely to curb the outlook for underlying growth, which suggests a negative impact for dry bulk demand, all else equal.